Singapore
Commentary on Monthly New Home Sales for April 2024
May 15, 2024
Associated Contact
Head of Marketing & Communications, Singapore
Following the strong rebound in March, new private developer sales slumped again to a 4-year low for the month of April on the absence of major new launches.
New home sales fell 58.1% m-o-m to 301 units in Apr 2024 from 718 units in Mar 2024. This is largely attributed to the absence of major new launches and indicative of current tentative market sentiment. On a y-o-y basis, developer sales were also down 66.2% from 890 units in Apr 2023 and were at a 4-year low for the month of April since 277 units were sold in Apr 2020 when lockdown measures were first implemented amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Apr sales take the current tally of 2024 new home sales to 1,465 units, 31.7% lower y-o-y from 2,146 units sold over the corresponding period in 2023. Take-up has largely moderated and buying sentiment has turned cautious amid high interest rates and an uncertain economy. Buyers are now more selective amid more choices and high price points.
|
Project Name |
Street Name |
Tenure |
Locality |
Units Sold in the Month |
Median Price ($psf) in the Month |
% of project sold to date |
|
THE BOTANY AT DAIRY FARM |
DAIRY FARM WALK |
99 yrs |
OCR |
50 |
$2,004 |
86.5% |
|
THE HILL @ ONE-NORTH |
SLIM BARRACKS RISE |
99 yrs |
RCR |
42 |
$2,614 |
29.6% |
|
NORTH GAIA (EC) |
YISHUN CLOSE |
99 yrs |
OCR |
33 |
$1,315 |
75.5% |
|
HILLHAVEN |
HILLVIEW RISE |
99 yrs |
OCR |
22 |
$2,080 |
29.6% |
|
PINETREE HILL |
PINE GROVE |
99 yrs |
RCR |
18 |
$2,439 |
41.9% |
|
LUMINA GRAND (EC) |
BUKIT BATOK WEST AVENUE 5 |
99 yrs |
OCR |
18 |
$1,516 |
71.9% |
|
LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES |
LENTOR HILLS ROAD |
99 yrs |
OCR |
16 |
$2,113 |
83.9% |
|
LENTOR MANSION |
LENTOR GARDENS |
99 yrs |
OCR |
15 |
$2,230 |
78.4% |
|
HILLOCK GREEN |
LENTOR CENTRAL |
99 yrs |
OCR |
12 |
$2,116 |
41.6% |
|
THE CONTINUUM |
THIAM SIEW AVENUE |
FH |
RCR |
9 |
$2,892 |
41.4% |
|
GRAND DUNMAN |
DUNMAN ROAD |
99 yrs |
RCR |
9 |
$2,681 |
64.5% |
Apr 2024 saw three new relatively small non-landed launches - 32 Gilstead (14 units), The Hillshore (59 units) and The Hill @ One-north (142 units).
All of the top 10 best performing projects in the month came from OCR and RCR launches, including 2 EC launches. This is indicative that buyers have turned very price sensitive amid economic weakness and high interest rates. They are also generally gravitating to existing launches which are priced more competitively relative to more recent launches.
The top performing private project in the month was existing launch, The Botany at Dairy Farm which moved another 50 units at a median price of $2,004 psf. This was followed by new city-fringe launch, The Hill @ One-north (142 units) which sold 42 units or 30% of its total units at a median price of $2,614 psf, paling in comparison to the robust performance observed at nearby project Blossoms by the Park (275 units) which sold 75% in its launch month back in Apr 2023. The weaker performance at The Hill @ One-north could be due to its comparatively high price point relative to Blossoms by the Park which also sold 7 units in Apr 2024 for a median price of $2,531 psf.
The third best performing project was EC launch North Gaia where 33 more units were transacted at a median price of $1,315 psf.
New Home Sales (excl. ECs) by quantum
*Based on Realis new sales (excl. EC) caveats extracted on 15 May 2024.
Based on quantum size, the largest proportion of new private homes sold (excl. ECs) were in the S$2.00 – 2.50 mil range at 33.1%. This was followed by the S$1.50 mil – S$2.00 mil bracket at 23.1%.
Outlook and forecasts
2023 new home sales hit a 15-year low at 6,421 units, 9.6% below the 7,099 units in 2022 amid repeated rounds of cooling measures, a softening economic backdrop and elevated interest rates. Buyers have turned more selective amid a myriad of new launch options, buyer fatigue and increasing resistance to high price points. Homebuyers’ tentative stance appears to be persisting, with 2024 year-to-April sales at 1,465 units, 31.7% lower y-o-y from 2,146 units sold over the correspondingly period in 2023.
Looking ahead, developer sales are set to remain tepid in May 2024 with no major new launches announced. 2 new boutique launches are expected in May 2024. The first is is 999-year tenure project Jansen House (21 units) situated along Jansen Road in the OCR developed by local developer Macly Group. Another potential launch is the freehold Straits at Joo Chiat (16 units) at Joo Chiat Place which sits on a redevelopment site which used to house a pair of semi-detached houses and is developed by Roxy-Pacific Holdings.
Overall, CBRE Research is cautiously optimistic on the private residential market in 2024. We forecast 7,000 – 8,000 new homes could be sold in 2024, an improvement from the 6,421 units in 2023 but still below the 5-year average new developer sales across 2019 – 2023 of 9,288 units. In the near term, downbeat macroeconomic conditions, cooling measures and elevated interest rates are likely to continue weighing on the private residential market. Sentiment could have also been further dented due to negative newsflow on delayed US rate cuts and general interest rate uncertainty. This could improve in H2 2024 however if interest rates ease and the economy recovers. Major attractive project launches in H2 2024 may also catalyse stronger home sales.
Correspondingly, private residential prices which are up 1.4% q-o-q in Q1 2024 could rise at a slower pace for the rest of the year. CBRE Research maintains our price forecast at 3 – 4% in 2024. A significant correction is not expected given still-low unemployment rate, resilient household balance sheets, and low unsold inventory.
About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2024 revenue). The company has more than 140,000 employees (including Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves clients through four business segments: Advisory (leasing, sales, debt origination, mortgage servicing, valuations); Building Operations & Experience (facilities management, property management, flex space & experience, digital infrastructure services); Project Management (program management, project management, cost consulting); Real Estate Investments (investment management, development). Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.