CBRE Commentary on Monthly New Home Sales for January 2024

By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE

January private home sales rebounded from a 14-year-low in December 2023, but were still the lowest January sales since Jan 2009’s 108 units, pointing to a weak start to the new year. 
 
New home sales doubled m-o-m to 281 units in Jan 2024 from 135 units in Dec 2023, which was a 14-year monthly low since Jan 2009, on a pickup in new launches to kickstart the year. On a y-o-y basis however, developer sales were still down 29% y-o-y from 394 units in Jan 2023 which saw the launch of suburban project Sceneca Residences (268 units). This is largely attributed to more subdued demand observed at Jan 2024’s new launches, which saw lower sell-through rate amid weak economic conditions, buyer fatigue and increasing resistance to high price points.  
Top 10 Selling Projects in Jan 2024 (including ECs and landed)

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	% of project sold to date
LUMINA GRAND (EC)	BUKIT BATOK WEST AVENUE 5	99 yrs	OCR	271	$1,525	52.9%
HILLHAVEN	HILLVIEW RISE	99 yrs	OCR	64	$2,065	18.8%
THE ARCADY AT BOON KENG	SAINT BARNABAS LANE	FH	RCR	47	$2,574	27.3%
THE MYST	UPPER BUKIT TIMAH ROAD	99 yrs	OCR	21	$2,212	49.8%
NORTH GAIA (EC)	YISHUN CLOSE	99 yrs	OCR	20	$1,303	64.8%
THE LANDMARK	CHIN SWEE ROAD	99 yrs	RCR	17	$2,610	85.9%
PINETREE HILL	PINE GROVE	99 yrs	RCR	15	$2,453	35.0%
ALTURA (EC)	BUKIT BATOK WEST AVENUE 8	FH	OCR	14	$1,501	91.1%
LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES	LENTOR HILLS ROAD	99 yrs	OCR	13	$2,130	75.4%
THE BOTANY AT DAIRY FARM	DAIRY FARM WALK	99 yrs	OCR	11	$2,006	61.7%
THE CONTINUUM	THIAM SIEW AVENUE	FH	RCR	11	$2,838	38.6%

Source: CBRE Research, URA

Jan 2024 saw two new non-landed launches, 99-year leasehold suburban project Hillhaven (341 units) and freehold city-fringe project The Arcady at Boon Keng (172 units). Both projects were met with subdued demand with sell-through rates below 30%. EC project Lumina Grand (512 units), was also launched in the month.

The top 3 best performing projects in the month were all new launches, with EC project Lumina Grand topping the chart, moving 271 or 53% of its total 512 units at a median price of $1,525 psf, a new benchmark price for new EC projects. Record prices at Lumina Grand may have boosted sales for other available EC projects as their prices are now seen as more competitive. CCR sales were muted in Jan 2024, with no CCR projects making the top 10 list, after Midtown Modern and Watten House made it to the Top 10 in December.

In second place was Hillhaven at Hillview which sold 64 units (19%) at a median price of $2,065 psf. Following close behind was city-fringe freehold project The Arcady at Boon Keng which sold 47 units or 27% of its total 172 units, at a median price of $2,574 psf.  
New launches in January 2024

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Total Number of Units in Project	Units Launched in the Month	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	Units sold as % of launched
HILLHAVEN	HILLVIEW RISE	99y	OCR	341	200	64	2,065	32%
THE ARCADY AT BOON KENG	SAINT BARNABAS LANE	FH	RCR	172	172	47	2,574	27%

Source: CBRE Research, URA
*Based on Realis new sales (excl. EC) caveats extracted on 15 Jan 2024. 

By market segment, Jan 2024’s developer sales (excluding ECs) were led by the Outside Central Region (OCR) where 144 (51.2%) units were sold, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR) where 112 units (39.9%) were sold, and the Core Central Region (CCR) which saw the sale of 25 units (8.9%). This compares to 17.8% in the CCR, 48.9% in the RCR and 33.3% in the OCR in Dec 2023.

Based on quantum size, the largest proportion of new private homes sold (excl. ECs) were in the S$1.50 mil - S$2.00 mil range at 32.7%. This was followed by the S$2.00 mil – S$2.50 mil bracket at 26.8%.

Outlook and forecasts 
2023 new home sales hit a 15-year low at 6,421 units, 9.6% below the 7,099 units in 2022 amid repeated rounds of cooling measures, a softening economic backdrop and elevated interest rates. 

While Jan 2024 saw a rebound in developer sales, the overall sell-through rate of the month’s projects paled in comparison to comparable launches in Jan 2023. This is indicative of the current tentative buying sentiment where buyers have turned more selective amid a myriad of new launch options, buyer fatigue and increasing resistance to high price points. Negative news flows from a slew of company layoffs, albeit globally, could also have dampened buying sentiment to start the year. 

Looking ahead, sales in Feb 2024 is likely to be tepid as developers hold back on launches amid the Lunar New Year seasonal lull. However, there is a healthy pipeline of potential new launches in the Q1 2024 pipeline which could support sales in March. Notable projects include OCR projects Sora (440 units), Lentor Mansion (533 units), city fringe launch The Hill@One-North (142 units) and CBD project Marina View Residences (683 units). 

Overall, CBRE Research is cautiously optimistic on the private residential market in 2024. We expect forecast 7,000 – 8,000 new homes could be sold in 2024, an improvement from the 6,421 units in 2023 but still below the 5-year average new developer sales across 2019 – 2023 of 9,288 units. In the near term, downbeat macroeconomic conditions, cooling measures and elevated interest rates are likely to continue weighing on the private residential market but sentiment could improve in H2 2024 if interest rates ease and the economy recovers.

Correspondingly, private residential prices could rise 3 – 4% in 2024, slowing from 2023’s 6.8%. A significant correction is not expected given still-low unemployment rate, resilient household balance sheets, and low unsold inventory.