Commentary on Monthly New Home Sales for May 2024

By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE

The sales drought continues – new private developer sales declined further in May and hit a record low for the month of May, and the lowest since Feb 2024’s 153 units.  
 
New home sales fell 26.6% m-o-m to 221 units in May 2024 from 301 units in Apr 2024. This is largely attributed to the absence of major new launches as developers could have held back on launches amid near-term interest rate uncertainty and the current tentative buying sentiment. 248 units were launched in the month, compared to 278 units in April and 877 units in March.

On a y-o-y basis, developer sales were down a marked 78.7% from 1,039 units in May 2023 which saw 2 major launches, The Continuum (816 units) and The Reserve Residences (732 units). This is also a record low for the month of May since data was available in 2008, below the previous floor of 487 units recorded in May 2020 during the Circuit Breaker at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

May sales take the current tally of 2024 new home sales to 1,686 units, 47.1% lower y-o-y from 3,185 units sold over the corresponding period in 2023. Buyers are now more selective amid more choices and high price points, with near-term sentiment further dented by unfavourable newsflows on a delay in the timeline of US interest rate cuts. 
Top 10 Selling Projects in May 2024 (including ECs and landed)

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	% of project sold to date
LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES	LENTOR HILLS ROAD	99 yrs	OCR	25	$2,164	88.1%
HILLHAVEN	HILLVIEW RISE	99 yrs	OCR	23	$2,099	36.4%
HILLOCK GREEN	LENTOR CENTRAL	99 yrs	OCR	21	$2,128	44.9%
NORTH GAIA (EC)	YISHUN CLOSE	99 yrs	OCR	20	$1,338	78.2%
LUMINA GRAND (EC)	BUKIT BATOK WEST AVENUE 5	99 yrs	OCR	19	$1,528	74.6%
THE BOTANY AT DAIRY FARM	DAIRY FARM WALK	99 yrs	OCR	18	$1,968	90.2%
THE MYST	UPPER BUKIT TIMAH ROAD	99 yrs	OCR	17	$2,152	59.8%
THE LANDMARK	CHIN SWEE ROAD	99 yrs	RCR	14	$2,883	94.9%
LENTOR MANSION	LENTOR GARDENS	99 yrs	OCR	11	$2,229	80.5%
THE CONTINUUM	THIAM SIEW AVENUE	FH	RCR	10	$2,844	42.6%
LENTORIA	LENTOR HILLS ROAD	99 yrs	OCR	10	$2,149	28.5%

Source: CBRE Research, URA

New launches in May 2024

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Total Number of Units in Project	Units Launched in the Month	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	Units sold as % of launched
JANSEN HOUSE	JANSEN ROAD	999y	OCR	21	21	3	2,098	14%
STRAITS AT JOO CHIAT	JOO CHIAT PLACE	FH	OCR	16	16	2	2,091	13%
SKYWATERS RESIDENCES*	SHENTON WAY	99y	CCR	190	190	1	6,100	1%

*Private launch, marketing by invitation.

May 2024 saw two new relatively small non-landed public launches – 999-year Jansen House (21 units) and freehold Straits at Joo Chiat (16 units). The former sold 3 units (14%) at a median price of $2,098 psf while the latter moved 2 units (13%) at a median price of $2,091 psf.

Amid the lack of major new launches, all of the top 10 best performing projects in the month came from existing projects mainly from the OCR and RCR, including 2 EC launches. This is indicative that buyers have turned very price sensitive amid economic weakness and high mortgage rates. 

The top performing private project in the month was existing launch, Lentor Hill Residences (598 units) which moved another 25 units at a median price of $2,164 psf. This was followed by Hillhaven (341 units) which sold 23 units at a median price of $2,099 psf. 

The third best performing project was another Lentor project, Hillock Green (474 units) where 21 more units were transacted at a median price of $2,128 psf. 

New Home Sales (excl. ECs) by quantum

By market segment, May 2024’s developer sales (excluding ECs) were led by the Outside Central Region (OCR), selling 141 units or 63.8% of total May new home sales, down from 150 units (49.8%) in April. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) sold 53 units (24%), down from 119 units (39.5%) in Apr 2024. Lastly, the Core Central Region (CCR) observed weaker sales, moving 27 units (12.2% of May sales), compared to 32 units (10.6%) in April. 

Based on quantum size, the largest proportion of new private homes sold (excl. ECs) were in the S$2.00 – 2.50 mil range at 37.2%. This was followed by the S$1.50 mil – S$2.00 mil bracket at 24.8%.

Outlook and forecasts 
2023 new home sales hit a 15-year low at 6,421 units, 9.6% below the 7,099 units in 2022 amid repeated rounds of cooling measures, a softening economic backdrop and elevated interest rates. 

The market situation appears to have worsened in 2024, with year-to-May sales at 1,686 units, 47.1% lower y-o-y from 3,185 units sold over the correspondingly period in 2023. Buyers have turned more selective amid a myriad of new launch options, buyer fatigue and increasing resistance to high price points, with generally lower take-up rates across 2024 project launches. Homebuyers’ current tentative stance is likely to persist until interest rate cuts and an economic rebound catalyse a recovery in sentiment.

Looking ahead, developer sales are set to remain tepid in June 2024 amid the June Holiday seasonal lull, with no major new launches announced. Sales after June could pick up significantly however, with a few major suburban launches expected in the pipeline: Kassia (276 units) situated along Flora Drive, The Chuan Park (916 units) at Lorong Chuan developed by Kingsford Development & MCC Land and the redevelopment of former Parkview Mansions, Sora (440 units) along Yuan Ching Road in Jurong Lake District. According to media sources, the Singhaiyi-led consortium behind Sora is set to launch the project on 6 Jul 2024 at prices from $1,850 psf. Emerald of Katong (Jalan Tembusu site), and projects at Toa Payoh Lor 1, Clementi Ave 1, and Tampines Ave 11 sites are also highly anticipated future launches. 

Nonetheless, with the expectation of a delay in interest rate cuts amid protracted economic uncertainty, the timeline for a recovery in new developer sales is likely to be pushed to 2025. As such, CBRE Research is lowering our 2024 new home sales forecast to 5,500 – 6,500 units from 7,000 – 8,000 units. While H1 2024 sales have been weak so far, overall sales for the year could come close to 2023’s 6,421 units with more major launches anticipated in the H2 2024 pipeline. Attractive developer pricing remains key to healthy new launch performance.

Correspondingly, private residential prices which are up 1.4% q-o-q in Q1 2024 could rise at a slower pace for the rest of the year. CBRE Research maintains our price forecast at 3 – 4% in 2024. A significant correction is not expected given still-low unemployment rate, resilient household balance sheets, and low unsold inventory.