CBRE Commentary on Monthly New Home Sales for November 2023

By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE

As expected, new private home sales rebounded from a 10-month low in October. New home sales more than tripled month-on-month to 784 units in November from 203 units in Oct 2023 on three major launches. Despite this, with no new launches in December amid the year-end festivities, 2023 looks set to end with the lowest new home sales since 2008. 

On a y-o-y basis, new home sales also were up 202% y-o-y from the 260 units sold in Nov 2022. 

This brings new home sales in the first 11 months of 2023 to 6,316 units, 9.6% lower than the 6,983 units sold over the same period in 2022. Sentiment this year has clearly deteriorated with higher interest rates, softer economic prospects and two more rounds of cooling measures since.  Top 10 Selling Projects in Nov 2023 (including ECs and landed)

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	% sold to date of total
J'den	Jurong East Central 1	99 yrs	OCR	329	2,475	89%
Hillock Green	Lentor Central	99 yrs	OCR	132	2,110	28%
Watten House	Shelford Road	FH	CCR	109	3,199	61%
Grand Dunman	Dunman Road	99 yrs	RCR	17	2,567	61%
Pinetree Hill	Pine Grove	99 yrs	RCR	17	2,446	32%
Lentor Hills Residences	Lentor Hills Road	99 yrs	OCR	16	2,084	72%
The Continuum	Thiam Siew Avenue	FH	RCR	16	2,791	35%
The Lakegarden Residences	Yuan Ching Road	99 yrs	OCR	15	2,080	31%
The Reserve Residences	Jalan Anak Bukit	99 yrs	RCR	13	2,576	90%
Lentor Modern	Lentor Central	99 yrs	OCR	10	2,088	95%
The Myst	Upper Bukit Timah Road	99 yrs	OCR	10	2,060	42%

Source: CBRE Research, URA
New launches in Nov 2023

Project Name	Street Name	Tenure	Locality	Total Number of Units in Project	Units Launched in the Month	Units Sold in the Month	Median Price ($psf) in the Month	Units sold as % of launched
J'Den	Jurong East Central 1	99 yrs	OCR	368	368	329	2,475	89%
Hillock Green	Lentor Central	99 yrs	OCR	474	460	132	2,110	29%
Watten House	Shelford Road	FH	CCR	180	109	109	3,199	100%

Source: CBRE Research, URA

The top three performing projects in the month were all new launches. J’den sold 329 units or 89% of its total 368 units at a median price of S$2,475 psf. Hillock Green, the third project in Lentor area to launch within 14 months, sold 132 units or 28% of its total 474 units, at a median price of S$2,110 psf. The third best-selling project was Watten House which sold 109 units or 61% of its total 180 units at a median price of S$3,199 psf. Watten House was a surprise hit, given its hefty quantum of at least S$3 million per unit as it comprises of larger formats of 3 to 5 bedrooms with a minimum size of 990 sqft. It is also the better selling new launch in the CCR, among just two CCR new launches this year, the other being Orchard Sophia.

Outlook and forecasts 
Year-to-Nov 2023 new home sales currently stand at 6,316 units, 9.6% lower than the 6,983 units sold over the same period in 2022. We expect December sales to be weak as developers pushed back new launches amid soft sentiment and festivities, which will bring the full year take-up to 6,500-6,700 units this year, below the 7,099 units in 2022, which was already a 14-year low since 2008’s 4,264 units. 

CBRE Research is cautiously optimistic on the private residential market in 2024. We expect private residential prices to rise 3 – 4% in 2024, similar to 2023, where the private home price index has risen 3.9% from Jan-Sep 2023. We have observed the new launch take-up and sentiment have softened significantly in H2 2023. Price growth has also slowed. We expect the weakness to carry through into H1 2024, as the global economic growth is set to slow further over the coming quarters, led primarily by a retraction in growth of the Group of Three economies – the euro zone, Japan, and the US. Worries about job security and elevated interest rates would likely led to cautious sentiment at least in the H1 2024. 

However, things could turn brighter in the second half of 2024 as global demand for Singapore’s exports recover and interest rates cease their surge globally. The government has put the GDP growth for 2024 at 1-3%. Barring any sharp downturn, we expect property prices to grow at the upper end of this range, given the high land costs, strong household balance sheet and affordability, and limited unsold inventory.   

We expect 7,000-8,000 new homes could be sold in 2024, an improvement from about 6,500-6,700 units for the whole of 2023 but still below the 5-year average new developer sales across 2018 – 2022 of 9,763 units. The current tentative buying sentiment could stretch into H1 2024 amid still-high interest rates and uncertain economic conditions before recovering more significantly in H2 2024 when interest rates ease and the economy recovers.

Interest could be piqued by a healthy pipeline of new launches, with an estimated 9,000 – 11,000 units could be launched. These units are mostly from GLS plots which were awarded in 2022 and 2023 and a few redevelopments of collective sales sites. 

Notable potential new launches in 2024 by market segment:
i. CCR: Newport Residences (443 units, Residential component of Fuji Xerox Towers redevelopment), Skywaters Residences (215 units, Residential component of AXA Tower redevelopment), Marina View Residences (683 units)
ii. RCR: The Hill@One-North (142 units), The Arcady at Boon Keng (172 units), Bukit One (155 units, Bukit Timah Link GLS)
iii. OCR: Hillhaven (341 units), Sora (440 units), Lentoria (267 units), Lentor Mansion (533 units), Tampines Ave 11 residential and commercial GLS (over 1,000 units), Lorong 1 Toa Payoh GLS (over 700 units) etc.