Commentary on Monthly New Home Sales for September 2024

Source: CBRE Research, URA
*Based on Realis new sales (excl. EC) caveats extracted on 15 Oct 2024. 

By market segment, September 2024’s developer sales (excluding ECs) were led by the Rest of Central Region (RCR), due to the sole new launch in RCR. 221 units, or 55.1% of September’s total new home sales, were sold in the RCR, up from 66 units (31.3%) in August. The Outside Central Region (OCR) sold 165 units (41.1% of September sales), up from 125 units (59.2%) in August 2024. Lastly, the Core Central Region (CCR) observed muted sales, moving 15 units (3.7% of September sales), compared to 20 units (9.5%) in August.

Based on quantum size, the largest proportion of new private homes sold (excl. ECs) were in the S$1.50 – 2.00 mil range at 29.9%. This was followed by the S$2.00 mil – S$2.50 mil bracket at 23.1%.

Outlook and forecasts 
2024 is shaping up to potentially register the worst annual new sales since 2008. Secondary sales volumes, however, continue to hold up, an indication that there is still liquidity in the market, but price-conscious buyers have turned to secondary stock amid the wide price gap between primary and secondary stock. 

We believe some pent-up demand for new homes is building up, and with more attractive launches announced in the months ahead and a more optimistic economic outlook, sales are poised to rebound in Q4 2023. There are indications of a recovery in sentiment following September’s rate cut, with recently launched freehold project in popular East Coast, Meyer Blue (226 units) observing a healthy performance, moving 114 of its total 226 units (50%) over its 5 October launch weekend at an average price of $3,260 psf. Another launch, Norwood Grand at Champions Way, marked to be the first private home launch in Woodlands in 12 years, could also see good sales over the 19 Oct weekend. 

Other major potential launches in Q4 2024 include Emerald of Katong (846 units), Nava Grove at Pine Grove (552 units) in the RCR; The Chuan Park (916 units) at Lorong Chuan and Novo Place (EC) in Tengah in the OCR. Attractive developer pricing remains key to healthy new launch performance.  

CBRE Research now expects 5,000 – 5,500 new homes to be sold in 2024, compared to 6,421 units in 2023. A more significant recovery of new developer sales is likely in 2025.

Private residential prices, which unexpectedly registered a 1.1% decline in Q3 2024’s flash estimate, should remain resilient in Q4 2024. CBRE Research keeps our full year forecast at +3% in 2024. A correction is not expected given still-low unemployment rate, resilient household balance sheets, and low unsold inventory.