Singapore
CBRE commentary on the GLS 1H 2024 - Highest private housing supply since 2H 2013, 3rd and 4th long-stay Serviced Apartment site
December 6, 2023
Associated Contact
Melvin Lin
Head of Marketing & Communications, Singapore
By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE
Largest residential supply on the Confirmed List since 2H 2013
The latest Government Land Sale (GLS) program saw the government bump up the residential supply on the confirmed list to the largest since 2H 2013. The Government will be releasing 9 residential sites and one commercial and residential site which can yield a total of 5,450 units, up 5.6% from the 5,160 units over the 8 residential sites in 2H 2023 GLS Confirmed List. This is the seventh consecutive increase since the trough of 1,390 units in the Confirmed List in 2H 2020, and the highest since 5,960 units in 2H 2013 Confirmed List. Excluding 710 EC units, this would translate into about 9,500 private homes on an annualised basis, higher than 2022’s 7,099 developer sales (excluding ECs), and on par with the 2013-2022 10-year average developer sales of 9,706 units. This should provide ample future landbanking opportunities for developers, and satisfy the resilient demand and hopefully stabilise prices.
Third and Fourth long-stay Serviced Apartment sites
Last week the government released two sites at Upper Thomson Road (Parcel A) and Zion Road (Parcel A) with a portion stipulated for long-stay Serviced Apartments (SA2). In the latest GLS 1H 2024, a third SA2 site at one-north is offered on the Confirmed List. This will be the first full SA2 only site with a potential yield of 515 Serviced Apartments. A fourth SA2 site, at River Valley Green (Parcel B) may yield 220 Serviced Apartments, out of a total 575 dwelling units.
We expect SA2 sites to be popular in areas with high rental demand, allowing developers to diversify development risks as well as create economies of scale when building common facilities. The Zion Road and one-north site are likely to be popular, given the existing high rental demand and business catchment.
First private housing sale site in new Bayshore estate, on the Reserve List
On 16 October 2023, plans for a new waterfront neighbourhood in Bayshore were unveiled. When completed, it is expected to yield about 10,000 new homes, of which approximately 30% will be private housing. A site adjacent from Costa del Sol, on top of the future Bayshore MRT station, with 480 units is offered on the Reserve List.
With ample supply on the Confirmed List, we do not expect this site to be triggered in the next six months. This could well be put on the Confirmed List later to kickstart the development of Bayshore estate.
No new commercial and hotel supply
In anticipation of tender closing for the 6.5ha white site in the Jurong Lake District in March 2024, there continues to be no new commercial or hotel supply on the GLS. The White site for a mixed-use development at Woodlands Avenue 2, the short-term lease commercial site at Punggol Walk, and the hotel site at River Valley Road will be carried over from the 2H2023 Reserve List to the 1H2024 Reserve List.
Residential Confirmed and Reserve List (no. of units)
Source: CBRE Research, MND. Resi : Residential. CL: Confirmed List. RL: Reserve List.
Which are the most attractive new sites on GLS 1H 2024?
There are 8 new sites on the Confirmed List. They are well spread-out and most are near MRT stations. We find the most attractive sites to be Margaret Drive site, River Valley Green and Jalan Loyang Besar EC.
Margaret Drive site is about 300m from the Queenstown MRT station, with a palatable size of 460 units and is regular shaped. There has been no new land sale since 2017 in that area, and the newest Stirling Residences has been completed and have done well.
River Valley Green (Parcel A) is on top of the Great World City MRT station, and near amenities, town and even a popular primary school. With a potential yield of 380 units, it is not too big and hence a lower development risk. However the plot size is longish and narrow, and thus may be challenging. There is also competition from the Zion Road site nearby. Bidders may take the cue from the tender closing for Zion Road (Parcel A) on 4 April 2024.
The Jalan Loyang Besar EC is relatively near to the Pasir Ris MRT (about 750m) and the new upcoming Pasir Ris Mall. Pasir Ris has not seen a new EC development since 2012’s Sea Horizon (next door).
Both the Canberra Crescent site and Dairy Farm Walk sites are not within walking distance to the nearest MRT station, and thus less attractive, though both have palatable size of 375 and 530 units respectively.
Tampines Street 94 site is a commercial and residential site, with 585 residential units and 10,500 sqm of commercial space. While a mixed-use development can be appealing and this is next to the Tampines West MRT station (on the downtown line), the commercial component and outlay can be quite significant and may be less attractive to developers.
Event and details:
Housing Supply Further Ramped Up in 1H2024 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, with Highest Housing Supply on Confirmed List since 2H2013 (mnd.gov.sg)
The Government today announced the GLS Programme for 1H2024, which comprises ten Confirmed List sites and nine Reserve List sites. These sites can yield about 8,910 private residential units, 107,750 sqm gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space and 530 hotel rooms.
The Confirmed List comprises nine private residential sites (including one EC site and one long-stay Serviced Apartments1 site) and one commercial & residential site, which can collectively yield about 5,450 private residential units (including 710 EC units and 515 long-stay Serviced Apartments) and 13,900 sqm GFA of commercial space.
The Reserve List comprises six private residential sites (including two EC sites and one site with a mandatory long-stay Serviced Apartments component), one commercial site, one White site and one hotel site. These Reserve List sites have the potential to yield an additional 3,460 private residential units (including 855 EC units and 220 long-stay Serviced Apartments), 93,850 sqm GFA of commercial space and 530 hotel rooms.
The Government will continue to monitor economic and property market conditions closely and calibrate the supply of future GLS programmes, as necessary, to help meet demand and promote market stability.
PROPOSED RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL AND HOTEL SITES FOR 1H2024 GLS PROGRAMME
(1) The estimated number of dwelling units (DU) for Executive Condominium and private residential sites take into account the average unit sizes of recent comparable developments and prevailing Development Control guidelines.
(2) New sites introduced in 1H2024.
(3) Sites are imposed with a minimum 600 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(4) Sites are imposed with a minimum 500 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(5) Site is for long-stay Serviced Apartment use only and imposed with a retail cap of 400 sqm.
(6) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 3,000 sqm GFA.
(7) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 10,500 sqm GFA and a minimum 650 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(8) A portion of the GFA for the site will be for long-stay Serviced Apartments use. Site is imposed with a retail cap of 500 sqm GFA.
(9) Site is imposed with a minimum office quantum of 8,400 sqm GFA and a minimum 650 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(10) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 33,000 sqm GFA and a minimum office quantum of 45,000 sqm GFA.
(11) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 2.000 sqm GFA.
(12) Refers to estimated date the detailed conditions of sale will be available, and applications can be submitted.
Largest residential supply on the Confirmed List since 2H 2013
The latest Government Land Sale (GLS) program saw the government bump up the residential supply on the confirmed list to the largest since 2H 2013. The Government will be releasing 9 residential sites and one commercial and residential site which can yield a total of 5,450 units, up 5.6% from the 5,160 units over the 8 residential sites in 2H 2023 GLS Confirmed List. This is the seventh consecutive increase since the trough of 1,390 units in the Confirmed List in 2H 2020, and the highest since 5,960 units in 2H 2013 Confirmed List. Excluding 710 EC units, this would translate into about 9,500 private homes on an annualised basis, higher than 2022’s 7,099 developer sales (excluding ECs), and on par with the 2013-2022 10-year average developer sales of 9,706 units. This should provide ample future landbanking opportunities for developers, and satisfy the resilient demand and hopefully stabilise prices.
Third and Fourth long-stay Serviced Apartment sites
Last week the government released two sites at Upper Thomson Road (Parcel A) and Zion Road (Parcel A) with a portion stipulated for long-stay Serviced Apartments (SA2). In the latest GLS 1H 2024, a third SA2 site at one-north is offered on the Confirmed List. This will be the first full SA2 only site with a potential yield of 515 Serviced Apartments. A fourth SA2 site, at River Valley Green (Parcel B) may yield 220 Serviced Apartments, out of a total 575 dwelling units.
We expect SA2 sites to be popular in areas with high rental demand, allowing developers to diversify development risks as well as create economies of scale when building common facilities. The Zion Road and one-north site are likely to be popular, given the existing high rental demand and business catchment.
First private housing sale site in new Bayshore estate, on the Reserve List
On 16 October 2023, plans for a new waterfront neighbourhood in Bayshore were unveiled. When completed, it is expected to yield about 10,000 new homes, of which approximately 30% will be private housing. A site adjacent from Costa del Sol, on top of the future Bayshore MRT station, with 480 units is offered on the Reserve List.
With ample supply on the Confirmed List, we do not expect this site to be triggered in the next six months. This could well be put on the Confirmed List later to kickstart the development of Bayshore estate.
No new commercial and hotel supply
In anticipation of tender closing for the 6.5ha white site in the Jurong Lake District in March 2024, there continues to be no new commercial or hotel supply on the GLS. The White site for a mixed-use development at Woodlands Avenue 2, the short-term lease commercial site at Punggol Walk, and the hotel site at River Valley Road will be carried over from the 2H2023 Reserve List to the 1H2024 Reserve List.
Residential Confirmed and Reserve List (no. of units)
Source: CBRE Research, MND. Resi : Residential. CL: Confirmed List. RL: Reserve List.
Which are the most attractive new sites on GLS 1H 2024?
There are 8 new sites on the Confirmed List. They are well spread-out and most are near MRT stations. We find the most attractive sites to be Margaret Drive site, River Valley Green and Jalan Loyang Besar EC.
Margaret Drive site is about 300m from the Queenstown MRT station, with a palatable size of 460 units and is regular shaped. There has been no new land sale since 2017 in that area, and the newest Stirling Residences has been completed and have done well.
River Valley Green (Parcel A) is on top of the Great World City MRT station, and near amenities, town and even a popular primary school. With a potential yield of 380 units, it is not too big and hence a lower development risk. However the plot size is longish and narrow, and thus may be challenging. There is also competition from the Zion Road site nearby. Bidders may take the cue from the tender closing for Zion Road (Parcel A) on 4 April 2024.
The Jalan Loyang Besar EC is relatively near to the Pasir Ris MRT (about 750m) and the new upcoming Pasir Ris Mall. Pasir Ris has not seen a new EC development since 2012’s Sea Horizon (next door).
Both the Canberra Crescent site and Dairy Farm Walk sites are not within walking distance to the nearest MRT station, and thus less attractive, though both have palatable size of 375 and 530 units respectively.
Tampines Street 94 site is a commercial and residential site, with 585 residential units and 10,500 sqm of commercial space. While a mixed-use development can be appealing and this is next to the Tampines West MRT station (on the downtown line), the commercial component and outlay can be quite significant and may be less attractive to developers.
Event and details:
Housing Supply Further Ramped Up in 1H2024 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, with Highest Housing Supply on Confirmed List since 2H2013 (mnd.gov.sg)
The Government today announced the GLS Programme for 1H2024, which comprises ten Confirmed List sites and nine Reserve List sites. These sites can yield about 8,910 private residential units, 107,750 sqm gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space and 530 hotel rooms.
The Confirmed List comprises nine private residential sites (including one EC site and one long-stay Serviced Apartments1 site) and one commercial & residential site, which can collectively yield about 5,450 private residential units (including 710 EC units and 515 long-stay Serviced Apartments) and 13,900 sqm GFA of commercial space.
The Reserve List comprises six private residential sites (including two EC sites and one site with a mandatory long-stay Serviced Apartments component), one commercial site, one White site and one hotel site. These Reserve List sites have the potential to yield an additional 3,460 private residential units (including 855 EC units and 220 long-stay Serviced Apartments), 93,850 sqm GFA of commercial space and 530 hotel rooms.
The Government will continue to monitor economic and property market conditions closely and calibrate the supply of future GLS programmes, as necessary, to help meet demand and promote market stability.
PROPOSED RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL AND HOTEL SITES FOR 1H2024 GLS PROGRAMME
| S/N | Location | Site Area (ha) | Proposed GPR | Estimated No. of Residential Units (1) | Estimated No. of Hotel Rooms | Estimated Commercial Space (m2) | Estimated Available Date (12) | Sales Agent |
| Confirmed List | ||||||||
| Residential Sites | ||||||||
| 1 | Holland Drive | 1.23 | 4.7 | 680 | 0 | 0 | Feb 2024 | URA |
| 2 | River Valley Green (Parcel A) (2) | 0.93 | 3.5 | 380 | 0 | 0 | Mar 2024 | URA |
| 3 | Canberra Crescent (2)(3) | 2.05 | 1.6 | 375 | 0 | 0 | Apr 2024 | URA |
| 4 | De Souza Avenue (4) | 1.92 | 1.6 | 355 | 0 | 0 | Apr 2024 | URA |
| 5 | Jalan Loyang Besar (EC) (2) | 2.84 | 2.5 | 710 | 0 | 0 | May 2024 | HDB |
| 6 |
Margaret Drive (2)(4) | 0.95 | 4.2 | 460 | 0 | 0 | May 2024 | URA |
| 7 | Media Circle (2)(5) | 0.57 | 4.2 | 515 | 0 | 400 | May 2024 | URA |
| 8 | Dairy Farm Walk (2) | 2.16 | 2.1 | 530 | 0 | 0 |
Jun 2024 | URA |
| 9 | Tengah Garden Avenue (2)(6) | 2.55 | 3.0 | 860 | 0 | 3,000 | Jun 2024 | URA |
| Commercial & Residential Sites | ||||||||
| 10 | Tampines Street 94 (2)(7) | 2.35 | 2.6 | 282 | 0 | 10,500 | Jun 2024 | HDB |
| |
Total (Confirmed List) | 5,450 | 0 | 13,900 | ||||
| S/N | Location | Site Area (ha) | Proposed GPR | Estimated No. of Residential Units (1) | Estimated No. of Hotel Rooms | Estimated Commercial Space (m2) | Estimated Available Date (12) | Sales Agent |
| Reserve List | ||||||||
| Residential Sites | ||||||||
| 1 | Lentor Gardens (3) | 2.06 | 2.1 | 500 | 0 | 0 | Available | URA |
| 2 |
Senja Close (EC) (4) | 1.01 | 3.0 | 295 | 0 | 0 | Available | HDB |
| 3 | Tampines Street 95 (EC) | 2.24 | 2.5 | 560 | 0 | 0 | Available | HDB |
| 4 | Zion Road (Parcel B) | 0.93 | 5.6 | 610 | 0 | 0 | Available | URA |
| 5 | River Valley Green (Parcel B) (2)(8) | 1.17 | 3.5 | 575 | 0 | 500 |
Mar 2024 | URA |
| 6 | Bayshore Road (2) | 0.98 | 4.2 | 480 | 0 | 0 | Jun 2024 | URA |
| Commercial Sites | ||||||||
| 7 | Punggol Walk (9) | 1.00 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 13,350 | Available | URA |
| White Sites | ||||||||
| 8 | Woodlands Avenue 2 (10) | 2.75 |
4.2 |
440 |
0 |
78,000 |
Available | URA |
| Hotel Sites | ||||||||
| 9 | River Valley Road (11) | 1.02 |
2.8 |
0 |
530 | 2,000 | Available | URA |
| Total (Reserve List) | 3,460 | 530 | 93,850 | |||||
| Total (Confirmed List and Reserve List) | 8,910 | 530 | 107,750 | |||||
(1) The estimated number of dwelling units (DU) for Executive Condominium and private residential sites take into account the average unit sizes of recent comparable developments and prevailing Development Control guidelines.
(2) New sites introduced in 1H2024.
(3) Sites are imposed with a minimum 600 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(4) Sites are imposed with a minimum 500 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(5) Site is for long-stay Serviced Apartment use only and imposed with a retail cap of 400 sqm.
(6) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 3,000 sqm GFA.
(7) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 10,500 sqm GFA and a minimum 650 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(8) A portion of the GFA for the site will be for long-stay Serviced Apartments use. Site is imposed with a retail cap of 500 sqm GFA.
(9) Site is imposed with a minimum office quantum of 8,400 sqm GFA and a minimum 650 sqm GFA for childcare centre.
(10) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 33,000 sqm GFA and a minimum office quantum of 45,000 sqm GFA.
(11) Site is imposed with a retail cap of 2.000 sqm GFA.
(12) Refers to estimated date the detailed conditions of sale will be available, and applications can be submitted.
About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2024 revenue). The company has more than 140,000 employees (including Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves clients through four business segments: Advisory (leasing, sales, debt origination, mortgage servicing, valuations); Building Operations & Experience (facilities management, property management, flex space & experience, digital infrastructure services); Project Management (program management, project management, cost consulting); Real Estate Investments (investment management, development). Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.