Commentary on the flash estimate of Q2 2026 private residential property price index

By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Singapore and Southeast Asia, CBRE

The flash estimate of URA’s price index for private residential properties in Q2 2026 shows that Singapore’s private housing price growth eased, rising 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2026 after 0.9% q-o-q growth in Q1 2026. The growth was uneven, led by landed and CCR non-landed, partially offset by declines in RCR and OCR non-landed. This brings private home price growth to 1.4% in 1H 2026. 

Based on caveats downloaded from realis on 1 Jul 2026, 2,116 new private homes (excl. ECs) were sold in Q2 2026, up 5.1% from 2,013 units in Q1 2026 on the back of robust take-up at major new launches. This is despite fewer launches in the quarter and heightened volatility and economic uncertainty amid the Middle East conflict.

URA Q2 2026 flash 

Flash estimates show that private home prices rose 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2026, moderating from the 0.9% q-o-q increase in Q1 2026. 

Q2 2026’s private home price increase was led by landed properties, which rebounded 2.6% q-o-q after falling 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2026. In contrast, the non-landed home price index saw a marginal 0.1% q-o-q decline after rising 1.3% in Q1 2026. 

Price performance was mixed across non-landed market segments, led by the CCR which saw 2.0% q-o-q growth. On the other hand, the OCR posted a marginal decline of 0.2% q-o-q and the RCR underperformed, falling 1.4% q-o-q. 

• Despite not seeing any new launches during the quarter, the CCR outperformed on firm pricing at existing launches River Modern (455 units) and 999-year project The Roberston Opus (348 unit), which saw units trade at higher median prices compared to preceding quarters as buyers scooped up remaining units, recognising value in these prime projects amid the narrowing price gap between the CCR and RCR/OCR.
• The slight decline in OCR prices could be attributed to Tengah Garden Residences (863 units). As the first private condo launch in Tengah, the project saw overwhelming take-up due to its attractive pricing relative to recent OCR launches, moving 853 units or 99% of its total units at an average price of $2,120 psf over its launch weekend. This also coincides with the HDB resale price index falling for a second consecutive quarter, down a cumulative 0.4% in 1H 2026, which may be indicative of weaker upgrading power.
• The RCR’s underperformance is likely due to realistic pricing at new launch Hudson Place Residences (327 units) which sold 218 units at a median price of $2,467 psf in the quarter, 2% lower than the median price of $2,518 psf recorded across units sold at preceding Media Circle launch Bloomsbury Residences.

Outlook

Preliminary 1H 2026 new sales tally at 4,129 units, 11.1% lower than the 4,587 units sold in 1H 2025. 

Despite heightened volatility and economic uncertainty in H1 2026 from the Middle East conflict which escalated from 28 February, homebuying appetite has remained resilient so far amid low interest rates. Developers have also become increasingly bullish in CCR Government land sale tenders that closed in the quarter – in particular, Peck Hay Road, Dunearn Road (2) and River Valley Parcel C, which recorded benchmark bid prices above comparable 2025 GLS tenders in the same location. 

Barring economic shocks, a decent pipeline of attractive new launches for the rest of the year and low mortgage rates are likely to continue supporting sales momentum. CBRE Research expects 7,500 – 8,500 new homes to be sold in 2026. This would be a moderation from the high base of 10,815 units in 2025 largely on fewer launches and the normalisation of pent-up demand after above-trend volumes last year. 

Correspondingly, private home prices, which have risen 1.4% in 1H 2026 based on Q2 2026’s flash estimate, could grow at a similar pace in 2H 2026. We maintain our private home prices to grow 2 – 4% in 2026 for now, relatively in line with MTI’s most recent 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2 – 4%, which is a moderation from the 5% GDP growth for 2025.