Commentary on the Q2 2025 Residential Price Index Flash Estimate

By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE

The flash estimate of URA’s price index for private residential properties in Q2 2025 shows that Singapore’s private housing price growth eased for a second consecutive quarter, rising 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2025 after recording 0.8% q-o-q growth in Q1 2025.  

Despite lower interest rates, new home sales saw a significant slowdown in Q2 2025 on fewer launches which were mainly in the RCR and CCR. Sentiment has turned cautious, dented by ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical tensions which dampened Singapore’s economic outlook and could have led to developers deferring their launches.

Based on caveats downloaded from realis on 1 Jul 2025, 1,129 new private homes (excluding ECs) were sold in Q2 2025, declining by 66.5% q-o-q from Q1 2025’s 3,375 units. On the other hand, secondary sales including resale and subsales saw a moderate fall of 19.2% q-o-q from 3,886 units in Q1 2025 to 3,138 units.  

URA Q2 2025 flash 

Flash estimates show that private home prices rose 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2025, moderating further from the 0.8% q-o-q increase in Q1 2025.

Q2 2025 private home price increase was consistent between landed and non-landed, led by the landed segment which posted 0.7% q-o-q growth. This represented a marginal pickup from the 0.4% increase in Q1 2025 for landed properties. The non-landed segment recorded 0.5% q-o-q growth, moderating from 1.0% growth in Q1 2025. 

The price performance was mixed across the 3 non-landed segments was mixed in the quarter. The OCR, which did not observe any new launches in the quarter, saw price growth pick up in Q2 2025, rising 0.9% q-o-q after the 0.3% increase in Q1 2025. 

The CCR and RCR which saw new launches in the quarter saw a divergence in performances. The CCR outperformed, posting moderate price growth of 2.3% q-o-q in Q2 2025, an acceleration from 0.8% growth in the previous quarter. In contrast, the RCR which outperformed in Q1 2025 underperformed in Q2 2025. Prices saw a 1.1% q-o-q decline after the 1.7% rise in Q1 2025.

• RCR’s underperformance could have been attributed to realistic pricing at new launches One Marina Gardens (937 units) and Bloomsbury Residences (358 units). The former, which was the top-selling launch in Q2 2025 moved 353 units (38% of total units) at an average price of $2,953 psf over its launch weekend in April 2025. Meanwhile, Bloomsbury Residences (358 units) located in the one-north precinct was sold 151 units (42% of total units) at a median price of $2,470 psf in Q2 2025, 3% lower than the median price of $2,546 psf at prior launch The Hill @One-North (142 units).  
• Amid low transaction volumes, CCR non-landed price index may have been boosted by new ultra-luxury launch 21 Anderson (19 units) which sold 5 units at a median price of $4,811 psf in Q2 2025. A 5-bedroom unit on the 55th floor of existing launch Skywaters Residences (190 units) also changed hands for $30.87 mil ($5,841 psf). 

Outlook

Despite lower interest rates, new home sales saw a significant slowdown in Q2 2025 on fewer launches which were mainly in the RCR and CCR. Sentiment has turned cautious, dented by ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical tensions which dampened Singapore’s economic outlook and could have led to developers deferring their launches.

Based on caveats downloaded from realis on 1 Jul 2025, 1,129 new private homes (excluding ECs) were sold in Q2 2025, declining by 66.5% q-o-q from Q1 2025’s 3,375 units. This brings 1H 2025 new home sales to 4,504 units. On the other hand, secondary sales including resale and subsales saw a moderate fall of 19.2% q-o-q from 3,886 units in Q1 2025 to 3,138 units.  

With abundant new projects ready to be launched in H2 2025, albeit mostly in prime locations and thus higher price points, sales may not match up to 1H 2025 levels. CBRE Research thus maintains our full year new home sales to be 7,000 – 8,000 units, signalling a slightly more subdued primary market in H2 2025. There is downside risk to this projection should economic conditions worsen significantly.

Correspondingly, private home prices which have risen 1.3% in H1 2025 based on Q2 2025’s flash estimate could see similar growth momentum in H2 2025. We maintain a full-year 2025 private home price increase of 3 – 4% for now, on still-low unsold inventory and strong household balance sheets. Risks are tilted to the downside given the weaker economic outlook – MTI has cut Singapore’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0 – 2% (from an initial 1 – 3%) as of 14 Apr 2025.