Singapore
Commentary on URA Q1 2025 statistics - Office, Retail, and Residential
April 25, 2025
Associated Contact
Melvin Lin
Head of Marketing & Communications, Singapore
By Tricia Song (宋明蔚), Head of Research, Southeast Asia, CBRE
According to CBRE Research, rents in the Core CBD (Grade A) submarket increased by 0.8% q-o-q to $12.05 psf/mth in Q1 2025, after four consecutive quarters of flat rental growth. CBRE Research continues to observe companies in sectors such as private wealth and asset management showing a strong preference for office spaces in prime locations with premium specifications, reflecting a trend of flight to quality. Additionally, more space in IOI Central Boulevard Towers was absorbed, raising its occupancy rate to over 80%.
According to URA, Category 1 median rental rates based on contract date remained stable at $12.07 psf/month, from $12.08 psf/month in Q4 2024, after growing 4.9% in the whole of 2024.
The sustained rent growth in prime office buildings has positively influenced rents for buildings in other categories, due to spillover demand. This quarter also saw an increase in rentals for Category 2 office buildings, with median rents based on signed contracts rising by 1.0% q-o-q in Q1 2025, following a 1.3% q-o-q increase in Q4 2024.
Table 1: Median rentals based on contract date
1 Refers to office space in buildings located in core business areas in Downtown Core and Orchard Planning Area which are relatively modern or recently refurbished, command relatively high rentals and have large floor plate size and gross floor area.
2 Refers to the remaining office space in Singapore which are not included in “Category 1”
Source: URA
According to the latest data from URA, the net supply of office space islandwide increased by 1.05 mil sq. ft. in Q1 2025. Aside from AEI works to the existing Cross Street Exchange, there were two new completions- Keppel South Central (0.5 mil. sq. ft.) in the Fringe CBD and Paya Lebar Green (0.32 mil. sq. ft.) in the decentralised area. The former has secured Manulife as its anchor tenant. Although more deals are currently under negotiation, the uncommitted space in these buildings contributed to a higher islandwide vacancy. As a result, URA data shows that the islandwide vacancy rate increased to 11.7% in Q1 2025, from 10.6% in Q4 2024.
URA’s price index showed that prices for office spaces in the central region declined 0.2% q-o-q in Q1 2025, slower than the 0.7% decline in Q4 2024. This was after a 1.8% price index increase in 2024.
On the supply front, no new Core CBD (Grade A) office buildings are expected to be completed until 2028. Given the relatively low vacancies and limited new supply in the coming years, CBRE Research maintains its forecast for Core CBD (Grade A) rents to grow at 2% in 2025.
With a sustained rental growth, limited new supply pipeline and interest rate cuts, investor sentiment towards office assets could improve going forward, supporting office prices.
URA’s Q1 2025 data showed that rents of retail space in the Central Region declined by 0.5% q-o-q, reversing the increase of 0.6% q-o-q the previous quarter. CBRE Research observed that the retail market was two-tiered in Q1 2025, characterised by healthy demand for prime spaces but softer leasing demand for secondary locations. CBRE Research’s data shows that islandwide prime floor rents increased by 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 2025, extending the rise of 0.7% q-o-q the previous quarter.
According to URA data, Q1 2025 saw negative net absorption of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.) in the islandwide private retail market, reversing four consecutive quarters of positive net absorption. As a result, islandwide private retail vacancy rates rose from 6.0% in Q4 2024 to 6.6% in Q1 2025.
• The softening of demand for retail spaces in Q1 2025 was in line with news flows on numerous high-profile closures and consolidations in Q1 2025, including Eggslut, Holland & Barrett, and Cathay Cineplexes. In our view, this is a regular market adjustment reflecting shifting consumer preferences and intense competition.
• However, CBRE Research noted that F&B operators were still active in expanding their footprints. The quarter continued to see the integration of F&B into retail premises as part of lifestyle concepts, such as Audi House of Progress x Burnt Ends Bakery, Rookies X HAUS Coffee and Louis Vuitton x Murakami.
• Meanwhile, fashion brands including Guess, Lacoste and Marimekko increased their presence. CBRE also observed more creative uses of vending machines recently, with some selling fresh food, drinks and collectibles.
All submarkets experienced negative net absorption in Q1 2025, with the exception of the Rest of Central area which saw positive net absorption of 8,000 sq. m. (about 86,000 sq. ft.) for the third consecutive quarter. However, with a net increase in stock of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.), which can be attributed to projects that completed asset enhancement works during the quarter such as The Cathay and Cross Street Exchange, the submarket saw a rise in vacancy rates from 7.6% in Q4 2024 to 7.9% in Q1 2025.
Conversely, the outside central region (OCR) submarket saw the highest negative net absorption. The area registered negative net absorption of 8,000 sq. m. (about 86,000 sq. ft.), reversing the positive net absorption of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.) in Q4 2024. While retailers are attracted to the submarket’s resilient local catchment, the sustained increase in rents could have driven some retailers to seek alternative spaces. As a result, vacancy rates increased from 3.4% in Q4 2024 to 4.4% in Q1 2025. Nevertheless, OCR vacancy rates remained the lowest across all submarkets.
Despite the rent decline, URA’s price index showed that prices for retail spaces in the central region rose 1.9% q-o-q in Q1 2025, after falling 1.3% in Q4 2024. While the U.S. Fed has paused interest rate cuts, Singapore’s financing rates have continued to fall, buoyed by abundant liquidity. Coupled with expectations of tourism recovery as well as healthy consumer spending, investor interest in prime and suburban retail assets have remained resilient.
While all 3 non-landed segments – CCR, RCR, OCR – saw new launches in the quarter which mostly set benchmark prices in their respective locality, the price premiums are now realistic compared to the secondary market. The price performance across non-landed segments was led by the RCR which recorded the largest increase of 1.7% q-o-q, extending its 3.0% q-o-q rise in Q4 2024. This was followed by the CCR where prices grew 0.8% after 2.6% in Q4 2024. Comparatively, the OCR grew a flattish 0.3% q-o-q after moderate 3.3% growth in Q4 2024.
• RCR’s outperformance could have been boosted by new launch The Orie located in the mature Toa Payoh estate which saw robust pent-up demand and set new benchmark prices as the first new Toa Payoh launch in 9 years since Gem Residences in 2016. The Orie sold 690 or 89% of 777 units available at an average price of $2,729 psf.
• The CCR saw the new launch of Aurea, the residential component of Golden Mile Complex’s redevelopment. The 188-unit project sold 24 units in Q1 2025 at a median price of $2,924 psf. CCR price growth could have been tempered by discounts offered at existing projects such as One Bernam (351 units) which adjusted prices to clear remaining unsold inventory and is now 100% sold after 102 units were sold in Q1 2025 at a median price of $2,523 psf.
• In the OCR, new launches Elta in Clementi and Parktown Residence in Tampines set new benchmark prices in their respective neighbourhoods which have not seen new supply in at least 5 years. Elta sold 65% of its total 501 units at a median price of $2,537 psf, while Parktown Residence, an integrated development in Tampines North, sold 88% of its 1,193 units at a median price of $2,364 psf. The sixth Lentor project Lentor Central Residence sold 95% of total 477 units at a median price of $2,213 psf, a price that is seen as comparable with Lentor projects launched two years ago.
Table 2: Top 10 best-selling new developer sales projects (excluding ECs) in Q1 2025 (ranked in descending order by number of units sold in the year)
Source: URA, CBRE Research
*Sales status based on caveats from Realis as of 25 Apr 2025.
New home sales held firm in Q1 2025 on the back of strong take-up at a slew of attractive new launches amid lower interest rates. 3,375 new homes were sold, down only marginally by 1.3% q-o-q from the high base of 3,420 units in Q4 2024 and nearly tripled Q1 2024’s 1,164 units. There were 6 major launches in the quarter. The best-performing projects were Lentor Central Residences (477 units), Parktown Residence (1,193 units) and The Orie (777 units), with robust launch weekend take-up rates of 93%, 87% and 86% respectively.
Secondary sales have slowed moderately as buyers gravitated to new launches in Q1 2025. 3,375 new private homes (excluding ECs) were sold in Q1 2025, declining by 1.3% from Q4 2024’s bumper 3,420 units. Meanwhile, secondary sales including resale and subsales fell 3.2% q-o-q from 4,013 units in Q4 2024 to 3,886 units in Q1 2025.
Resale transaction volumes in Q1 2025 fell slightly by 3.7% q-o-q to 3,565 units, after 3,702 units in Q4 2024. Resale transactions made up 49.1% of total transactions in Q1 2025, consistent with the 49.8% in Q4 2024.
Alongside from new sales, unsold inventory of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) fell 6.6% q-o-q in Q1 2025 to 18,125 units from 19,405 units in Q4 2024. Including completed units, unsold inventory decreased 6.8% from 19,606 units in Q4 2024 to 18,270 units in Q1 2025.
• Unsold inventory is significantly lower than the last peak of 37,799 units recorded in Q1 2019. At 19,606 units, this implies more than two years’ of landbank based on the 5-year annual average new home sales (2020 – 2024) of 8,600 units and 2024’s total developer sales of 6,469 units.
Rentals of private residential properties rose marginally in Q1 2025 after staying flat in Q4 2024. URA’s islandwide rental index was up 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2025 after remaining unchanged in Q4 2024.
• Non-landed properties led in Q1 2025, posting a 0.5% q-o-q increase while landed property rents rose at a slightly slower 0.3% q-o-q.
• Among non-landed properties, the increase was consistent across all market segments. The OCR outperformed, rising 0.7% q-o-q. This was a recovery following a 0.8% q-o-q decline in Q4 2024. Comparatively, the RCR and CCR both posted 0.4% q-o-q growth, extending their respective 0.3% and 0.9% q-o-q increases in Q4 2024.
• In Q1 2025, 1,988 private residential units were completed, 35.5% less than Q4 2024’s 3,084 units. Looking ahead, 3,932 private residential units (excl. ECs) are expected to be completed for the rest of 2025. At a total 5,920 units for the whole of 2025, this is 30% lower than 2024’s completions of 8,460 units.
• The stock of occupied private residential units (excluding ECs) increased by 2,498 units in the quarter, compared with an increase of 5,420 units in the previous quarter. As a result of demand exceeding supply, the vacancy rate of completed private residential units (excluding ECs) fell for a second straight quarter, falling slightly to 6.5% as of Q1 2025, from 6.6% in the previous quarter.
• Vacancy rates of completed private residential properties as at Q1 2025 in CCR, RCR and OCR were 10.3%, 6.6% and 4.7% respectively, compared with 10%, 7.3% and 4.7% in the previous quarter.
Rents initially fell 2.7% in H1 2024 but rebounded 0.8% in H2 2024 to post a cumulative 1.9% decline for the full-year. The recovery in rents has continued in Q1 2025, with the URA rental index seeing 0.4% q-o-q growth. This is in line with improved vacancy rates since peaking in Q3 2024. Coupled with below-trend supply completion of 5,920 units in 2025, we forecast islandwide rents to recover and grow 1 – 3% in 2025, barring a significant pullback in demand.
Private residential prices rose 3.9% in 2024, a moderation from 2023’s 6.8% growth. Private home prices rose 0.8% q-o-q in Q1 2025, moderating from the 2.3% q-o-q increase in Q4 2024. We maintain a full-year 2025 private home price increase of 3 – 4% for now, on still-low unsold inventory and strong household balance sheets. The growth momentum could plateau in the next few quarters on a weaker economic outlook -- MTI has cut Singapore’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0 – 2% (from an initial 1 – 3%) as of 14 April.
Read the URA press release here.
Office
The office sector experienced a positive start to the year. After two consecutive quarters of declines in Q3 2024 and Q4 2024, the office rental market in Singapore saw a slight increase in Q1 2025. The URA office rental index (Central Region) increased by 0.3% q-o-q this quarter, after a marginal 0.9% q-o-q decline in Q4 2024 and 0.5% q-o-q decline in Q3 2024.According to CBRE Research, rents in the Core CBD (Grade A) submarket increased by 0.8% q-o-q to $12.05 psf/mth in Q1 2025, after four consecutive quarters of flat rental growth. CBRE Research continues to observe companies in sectors such as private wealth and asset management showing a strong preference for office spaces in prime locations with premium specifications, reflecting a trend of flight to quality. Additionally, more space in IOI Central Boulevard Towers was absorbed, raising its occupancy rate to over 80%.
According to URA, Category 1 median rental rates based on contract date remained stable at $12.07 psf/month, from $12.08 psf/month in Q4 2024, after growing 4.9% in the whole of 2024.
The sustained rent growth in prime office buildings has positively influenced rents for buildings in other categories, due to spillover demand. This quarter also saw an increase in rentals for Category 2 office buildings, with median rents based on signed contracts rising by 1.0% q-o-q in Q1 2025, following a 1.3% q-o-q increase in Q4 2024.
Table 1: Median rentals based on contract date
|
|
Category 11 |
Category 22 |
||||
|
|
Rents ($ psf/month) |
Q-o-q |
Vacancy |
Rents ($ psf/month) |
Q-o-q |
Vacancy |
|
Q1 2024 |
$11.37 |
-1.3% |
7.9% |
$6.08 |
0.7% |
10.3% |
|
Q2 2024 |
$11.83 |
4.0% |
10.1% |
$6.44 |
5.9% |
11.1% |
|
Q3 2024 |
$11.73 |
-0.8% |
10.3% |
$6.21 |
-3.6% |
11.3% |
|
Q4 2024 |
$12.08 |
3.0% |
9.1% |
$6.29 |
1.3% |
11.3% |
|
Q1 2025 |
$12.07 |
-0.1% |
11.7% |
$6.35 |
1.0% |
11.7% |
2 Refers to the remaining office space in Singapore which are not included in “Category 1”
Source: URA
According to the latest data from URA, the net supply of office space islandwide increased by 1.05 mil sq. ft. in Q1 2025. Aside from AEI works to the existing Cross Street Exchange, there were two new completions- Keppel South Central (0.5 mil. sq. ft.) in the Fringe CBD and Paya Lebar Green (0.32 mil. sq. ft.) in the decentralised area. The former has secured Manulife as its anchor tenant. Although more deals are currently under negotiation, the uncommitted space in these buildings contributed to a higher islandwide vacancy. As a result, URA data shows that the islandwide vacancy rate increased to 11.7% in Q1 2025, from 10.6% in Q4 2024.
URA’s price index showed that prices for office spaces in the central region declined 0.2% q-o-q in Q1 2025, slower than the 0.7% decline in Q4 2024. This was after a 1.8% price index increase in 2024.
Outlook
While Q1 2025 demonstrated encouraging rent growth, an economic slowdown could dampen confidence and delay market expansion decisions, leading to more lease renewals instead. Nonetheless, Singapore’s reputation as a key business hub and safe haven, bolstered by its political neutrality and stable government policies, could support some demand.On the supply front, no new Core CBD (Grade A) office buildings are expected to be completed until 2028. Given the relatively low vacancies and limited new supply in the coming years, CBRE Research maintains its forecast for Core CBD (Grade A) rents to grow at 2% in 2025.
With a sustained rental growth, limited new supply pipeline and interest rate cuts, investor sentiment towards office assets could improve going forward, supporting office prices.
Retail
Retail indicators such as the retail sales index showed mixed performance in Q1 2025, with a 3.5% y-o-y rise in Jan but a 8.3% y-o-y fall in Feb 2025. This can be attributed to the difference in the timing of Chinese New Year in 2024 and 2025. Tourism arrival recovery has also started to taper, with merely a 0.3% y-o-y increase in Q1 2025. This followed a strong 2024 which saw visitor arrivals reach 16.5 mil, the upper end of STB’s forecast, garnering an all-time high in tourism receipts of $29.8 bn.URA’s Q1 2025 data showed that rents of retail space in the Central Region declined by 0.5% q-o-q, reversing the increase of 0.6% q-o-q the previous quarter. CBRE Research observed that the retail market was two-tiered in Q1 2025, characterised by healthy demand for prime spaces but softer leasing demand for secondary locations. CBRE Research’s data shows that islandwide prime floor rents increased by 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 2025, extending the rise of 0.7% q-o-q the previous quarter.
According to URA data, Q1 2025 saw negative net absorption of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.) in the islandwide private retail market, reversing four consecutive quarters of positive net absorption. As a result, islandwide private retail vacancy rates rose from 6.0% in Q4 2024 to 6.6% in Q1 2025.
• The softening of demand for retail spaces in Q1 2025 was in line with news flows on numerous high-profile closures and consolidations in Q1 2025, including Eggslut, Holland & Barrett, and Cathay Cineplexes. In our view, this is a regular market adjustment reflecting shifting consumer preferences and intense competition.
• However, CBRE Research noted that F&B operators were still active in expanding their footprints. The quarter continued to see the integration of F&B into retail premises as part of lifestyle concepts, such as Audi House of Progress x Burnt Ends Bakery, Rookies X HAUS Coffee and Louis Vuitton x Murakami.
• Meanwhile, fashion brands including Guess, Lacoste and Marimekko increased their presence. CBRE also observed more creative uses of vending machines recently, with some selling fresh food, drinks and collectibles.
All submarkets experienced negative net absorption in Q1 2025, with the exception of the Rest of Central area which saw positive net absorption of 8,000 sq. m. (about 86,000 sq. ft.) for the third consecutive quarter. However, with a net increase in stock of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.), which can be attributed to projects that completed asset enhancement works during the quarter such as The Cathay and Cross Street Exchange, the submarket saw a rise in vacancy rates from 7.6% in Q4 2024 to 7.9% in Q1 2025.
Conversely, the outside central region (OCR) submarket saw the highest negative net absorption. The area registered negative net absorption of 8,000 sq. m. (about 86,000 sq. ft.), reversing the positive net absorption of 12,000 sq. m. (about 129,000 sq. ft.) in Q4 2024. While retailers are attracted to the submarket’s resilient local catchment, the sustained increase in rents could have driven some retailers to seek alternative spaces. As a result, vacancy rates increased from 3.4% in Q4 2024 to 4.4% in Q1 2025. Nevertheless, OCR vacancy rates remained the lowest across all submarkets.
Despite the rent decline, URA’s price index showed that prices for retail spaces in the central region rose 1.9% q-o-q in Q1 2025, after falling 1.3% in Q4 2024. While the U.S. Fed has paused interest rate cuts, Singapore’s financing rates have continued to fall, buoyed by abundant liquidity. Coupled with expectations of tourism recovery as well as healthy consumer spending, investor interest in prime and suburban retail assets have remained resilient.
Outlook
Retailers continue to face challenges such as competition from e-commerce and higher operating costs. With slowing retail sales, retailers are likely to adopt a more cautious stance towards expansions. On a brighter note, the strong pipeline of MICE events and concerts should support tourism recovery and subsequently demand for prime retail spaces. On balance, with below-historical-average supply over the next few years, CBRE Research expects islandwide prime floor retail rents to still grow in 2025, but at a slower rate than 2024.Residential
Private housing prices rose 0.8% q-o-q in Q1 2025. This was higher than the initial flash estimate of 0.6% q-o-q but down from the 2.3% q-o-q increase in Q4 2024 on more realistic price premiums at new launches in the quarter. The price increase was led by non-landed properties which posted 1.0% q-o-q growth, albeit moderating from the 3.0% increase in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, landed properties saw prices rise 0.4% q-o-q, representing a recovery from the 0.1% decline in Q4 2024.While all 3 non-landed segments – CCR, RCR, OCR – saw new launches in the quarter which mostly set benchmark prices in their respective locality, the price premiums are now realistic compared to the secondary market. The price performance across non-landed segments was led by the RCR which recorded the largest increase of 1.7% q-o-q, extending its 3.0% q-o-q rise in Q4 2024. This was followed by the CCR where prices grew 0.8% after 2.6% in Q4 2024. Comparatively, the OCR grew a flattish 0.3% q-o-q after moderate 3.3% growth in Q4 2024.
• RCR’s outperformance could have been boosted by new launch The Orie located in the mature Toa Payoh estate which saw robust pent-up demand and set new benchmark prices as the first new Toa Payoh launch in 9 years since Gem Residences in 2016. The Orie sold 690 or 89% of 777 units available at an average price of $2,729 psf.
• The CCR saw the new launch of Aurea, the residential component of Golden Mile Complex’s redevelopment. The 188-unit project sold 24 units in Q1 2025 at a median price of $2,924 psf. CCR price growth could have been tempered by discounts offered at existing projects such as One Bernam (351 units) which adjusted prices to clear remaining unsold inventory and is now 100% sold after 102 units were sold in Q1 2025 at a median price of $2,523 psf.
• In the OCR, new launches Elta in Clementi and Parktown Residence in Tampines set new benchmark prices in their respective neighbourhoods which have not seen new supply in at least 5 years. Elta sold 65% of its total 501 units at a median price of $2,537 psf, while Parktown Residence, an integrated development in Tampines North, sold 88% of its 1,193 units at a median price of $2,364 psf. The sixth Lentor project Lentor Central Residence sold 95% of total 477 units at a median price of $2,213 psf, a price that is seen as comparable with Lentor projects launched two years ago.
|
Project name |
Tenure |
Market segment |
Units sold |
Median Price ($psf) |
% Of project sold as of Q1 2025* |
|
PARKTOWN RESIDENCE |
99 yrs |
OCR |
1054 |
$2,364 |
88.3% |
|
THE ORIE |
99 yrs |
RCR |
690 |
$2,729 |
88.8% |
|
LENTOR CENTRAL RESIDENCES |
99 yrs |
OCR |
455 |
$2,213 |
95.4% |
|
ELTA |
99 yrs |
OCR |
327 |
$2,537 |
65.3% |
|
ONE BERNAM |
99 yrs |
CCR |
102 |
$2,523 |
100% |
|
BAGNALL HAUS |
Freehold |
OCR |
81 |
$2,490 |
90.3% |
|
PINETREE HILL |
99 yrs |
RCR |
66 |
$2,581 |
81.9% |
|
HILLOCK GREEN |
99 yrs |
OCR |
58 |
$2,208 |
87.6% |
|
SORA |
99 yrs |
OCR |
44 |
$2,308 |
42.0% |
|
NAVA GROVE |
99 yrs |
RCR |
36 |
$2,574 |
76.6% |
*Sales status based on caveats from Realis as of 25 Apr 2025.
New home sales held firm in Q1 2025 on the back of strong take-up at a slew of attractive new launches amid lower interest rates. 3,375 new homes were sold, down only marginally by 1.3% q-o-q from the high base of 3,420 units in Q4 2024 and nearly tripled Q1 2024’s 1,164 units. There were 6 major launches in the quarter. The best-performing projects were Lentor Central Residences (477 units), Parktown Residence (1,193 units) and The Orie (777 units), with robust launch weekend take-up rates of 93%, 87% and 86% respectively.
Secondary sales have slowed moderately as buyers gravitated to new launches in Q1 2025. 3,375 new private homes (excluding ECs) were sold in Q1 2025, declining by 1.3% from Q4 2024’s bumper 3,420 units. Meanwhile, secondary sales including resale and subsales fell 3.2% q-o-q from 4,013 units in Q4 2024 to 3,886 units in Q1 2025.
Resale transaction volumes in Q1 2025 fell slightly by 3.7% q-o-q to 3,565 units, after 3,702 units in Q4 2024. Resale transactions made up 49.1% of total transactions in Q1 2025, consistent with the 49.8% in Q4 2024.
Alongside from new sales, unsold inventory of uncompleted private residential units (excluding ECs) fell 6.6% q-o-q in Q1 2025 to 18,125 units from 19,405 units in Q4 2024. Including completed units, unsold inventory decreased 6.8% from 19,606 units in Q4 2024 to 18,270 units in Q1 2025.
• Unsold inventory is significantly lower than the last peak of 37,799 units recorded in Q1 2019. At 19,606 units, this implies more than two years’ of landbank based on the 5-year annual average new home sales (2020 – 2024) of 8,600 units and 2024’s total developer sales of 6,469 units.
Rentals of private residential properties rose marginally in Q1 2025 after staying flat in Q4 2024. URA’s islandwide rental index was up 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2025 after remaining unchanged in Q4 2024.
• Non-landed properties led in Q1 2025, posting a 0.5% q-o-q increase while landed property rents rose at a slightly slower 0.3% q-o-q.
• Among non-landed properties, the increase was consistent across all market segments. The OCR outperformed, rising 0.7% q-o-q. This was a recovery following a 0.8% q-o-q decline in Q4 2024. Comparatively, the RCR and CCR both posted 0.4% q-o-q growth, extending their respective 0.3% and 0.9% q-o-q increases in Q4 2024.
• In Q1 2025, 1,988 private residential units were completed, 35.5% less than Q4 2024’s 3,084 units. Looking ahead, 3,932 private residential units (excl. ECs) are expected to be completed for the rest of 2025. At a total 5,920 units for the whole of 2025, this is 30% lower than 2024’s completions of 8,460 units.
• The stock of occupied private residential units (excluding ECs) increased by 2,498 units in the quarter, compared with an increase of 5,420 units in the previous quarter. As a result of demand exceeding supply, the vacancy rate of completed private residential units (excluding ECs) fell for a second straight quarter, falling slightly to 6.5% as of Q1 2025, from 6.6% in the previous quarter.
• Vacancy rates of completed private residential properties as at Q1 2025 in CCR, RCR and OCR were 10.3%, 6.6% and 4.7% respectively, compared with 10%, 7.3% and 4.7% in the previous quarter.
Outlook
CBRE Research is cautiously optimistic on the private residential market in 2025. While Q1 2025’s new sales have held up mainly on attractive and voluminous OCR projects, most new launches for the rest of 2025 will be from the CCR and RCR, which have higher price points and may not generate the same kind of volumes. With most pent-up demand in the suburbs and city fringe realised, pricing and design will be crucial for the upcoming new launches to continue this momentum. We thus maintain our full year new home sales to be 7,000 – 8,000 units, signaling a slowdown in new home sales in the next few quarters. There is downside risk to this projection should economic conditions worsen significantly.Rents initially fell 2.7% in H1 2024 but rebounded 0.8% in H2 2024 to post a cumulative 1.9% decline for the full-year. The recovery in rents has continued in Q1 2025, with the URA rental index seeing 0.4% q-o-q growth. This is in line with improved vacancy rates since peaking in Q3 2024. Coupled with below-trend supply completion of 5,920 units in 2025, we forecast islandwide rents to recover and grow 1 – 3% in 2025, barring a significant pullback in demand.
Private residential prices rose 3.9% in 2024, a moderation from 2023’s 6.8% growth. Private home prices rose 0.8% q-o-q in Q1 2025, moderating from the 2.3% q-o-q increase in Q4 2024. We maintain a full-year 2025 private home price increase of 3 – 4% for now, on still-low unsold inventory and strong household balance sheets. The growth momentum could plateau in the next few quarters on a weaker economic outlook -- MTI has cut Singapore’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0 – 2% (from an initial 1 – 3%) as of 14 April.
Read the URA press release here.
About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Dallas, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2024 revenue). The company has more than 140,000 employees (including Turner & Townsend employees) serving clients in more than 100 countries. CBRE serves clients through four business segments: Advisory (leasing, sales, debt origination, mortgage servicing, valuations); Building Operations & Experience (facilities management, property management, flex space & experience, digital infrastructure services); Project Management (program management, project management, cost consulting); Real Estate Investments (investment management, development). Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.